鲍威尔在2023年安德森霍尔会议上的演讲全文（中英对照）

on， the process still has a long way to go， even with the more forable recent readings．

短时间的高财政赤字最初是由异时常强大的供给与所致登革热限制的储备撞毁应运而生的。月份2022年3月初的政府公开的产品秘书处（FOMC）提高举措商品价位之时，很明显，减小财政赤字既各有不同消除与登革热无关的从造就的供给和储备空洞，也各有不同我们挂钩国债举措，因为这将减缓总供给的增高，使储备有时间迎头赶上。虽然这两股勇气现今自始在共同努力减小财政赤字，但这一反复仍有极短的二路要走，即使最仅有的原始数据颇为有利。

On a 12-month basis， U.S． total， or “headline，” PCE （personal consumption expenditures） inflation peaked at 7 percent in June 2022 and declined to 3.3 percent as of July， following a trajectory roughly in line with global trends （figure 1， panel A）． The effects of Russia‘s war against Ukraine he been a primary driver of the changes in headline inflation around the world since early 2022． Headline inflation is what households and businesses experience most directly， so this decline is very good news． But food and energy prices are influenced by global factors that remain volatile， and can provide a misleading signal of where inflation is headed． In my remaining comments， I will focus on core PCE inflation， which omits the food and energy components．

上半年来看，美国上都个人商品开支（PCE）本土装配总值在2022年6月初达致7%的最大值，并在月初内7月初调低3.3%，约略与在世界上急遽明确（布1，LCDA）。自2022年初以来，俄乌冲突的更为严重影响一直是在世界上上都财政赤字变化时的主要动力主因。上都财政赤字是家庭和大企业最能这样一来感所致到的，因此这一跌幅是个非时常好的第一时间。但制品和新能源价位所致到在世界上主因的更为严重影响，而这些主因仍不牢固，并才亦会对财政赤字贯穿发出误导性讯号。在我余下的发表演说当中，我将重点关切一个当中心PCE财政赤字，其当中剔除了制品和新能源部份。

On a 12-month basis， core PCE inflation peaked at 5.4 percent in February 2022 and declined gradually to 4.3 percent in July （figure 1， panel B）． The lower monthly readings for core inflation in June and July were welcome， but two months of good data are only the beginning of what it will take to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal． We can‘t yet know the extent to which these lower readings will continue or where underlying inflation will settle over coming quarters． Twelve-month core inflation is still elevated， and there is substantial further ground to cover to get back to price stability．

上半年来看，一个当中心PCE本土装配总值在2022年2月初达致5.4%的最大值，并在月初内7月初日益下调低4.3%（布1，LCDB）。6月初和7月初的月初度一个当中心财政赤字原始数据高无疑是广为人知的，但这两个月初的好原始数据只是建立对财政赤字向目的短时间折返希望的开始。我们还不知道这些高的原始数据亦会短时间到什么往往，也不知道期望几个3集潜在的财政赤字亦会在哪内都牢固下来。12个月初（上半年）一个当中心本土装配总值仍东南面都将，要趋于稳定物价牢固还有相当长的二路要走。

To understand the factors that will likely drive further progress， it is useful to separately examine the three broad components of core PCE inflation—inflation for goods， for housing services， and for all other services， sometimes referred to as nonhousing services （figure 2）．

为了解读确实促成财政赤字确实性转变的主因，我们有确实分别考察一个当中心PCE财政赤字的三个主要组成部份——商品财政赤字、住宅客户服务财政赤字和所有其他客户服务财政赤字，有时被称之为非住宅客户餐饮业（布2）。

Core goods inflation has fallen sharply， particularly for durable goods， as both tighter monetary policy and the slow unwinding of supply and demand dislocations are bringing it down． The motor vehicle sector provides a good illustration． Earlier in the pandemic， demand for vehicles rose sharply， supported by low interest rates， fiscal transfers， curtailed spending on in-person services， and shifts in preference away from using public transportation and from living in cities． But because of a shortage of semiconductors， vehicle supply actually fell． Vehicle prices spiked， and a large pool of pent-up demand emerged． As the pandemic and its effects he waned， production and inventories he grown， and supply has improved． At the same time， higher interest rates he weighed on demand． Interest rates on auto loans he nearly doubled since early last year， and customers report feeling the effect of higher rates on affordability． On net， motor vehicle inflation has declined sharply because of the combined effects of these supply and demand factors．

一个当中心商品（特别是耐用品）财政赤字已大幅度减小，因为国债举措挂钩以及供需颠倒的较快缓解自始在拉低一个当中心商品财政赤字。车也分项就是一个很好的例子。在登革热早期，由于低商品价位、财政转移偿还、打招呼客户服务开支减小，以及人们不必取向于用到公共交通设施工具和居住在郊区，对车辆的供给急剧增高。但由于导体的供应，车也储备实质上减小了。因此，车也价位飙升，大量被压抑的供给开始显现。随着登革热及其更为严重影响的减弱，装配和库存不大减小，储备相应优化。与此同时，更加高的商品价位也减缓了供给。自月份初以来，车也商业银行贷款商品价位大部份据统计。此部份，商品者报告称，商品价位增高对他们的负担能力产生了更为严重影响。总的来说，由于这些储备和供给主因的整体更为严重影响，货车的本土装配总值急剧减小。

Similar dynamics are playing out for core goods inflation overall． As they do， the effects of monetary restraint should show through more fully over time． Core goods prices fell the past two months， but on a 12-month basis， core goods inflation remains well above its pre-pandemic level． Sustained progress is needed， and restrictive monetary policy is called for to achieve that progress．

既有上看，一个当中心商品财政赤字也呈现出类似的发展趋势。随着时间的不长，国债举措削减的特性不应亦会更加更好地显现出。一个当中心商品价位在从从前两个月初不大减小，但上半年工业产值仍远高于大大行其道从前的水准。短时间的十分困难是确实的，为了发挥依赖性这一十分困难，不一定需要回避举例来说国债举措。

In the highly interest-sensitive housing sector， the effects of monetary policy became apparent soon after liftoff． Mortgage rates doubled over the course of 2022， causing housing starts and sales to fall and house price growth to plummet． Growth in market rents soon peaked and then steadily declined （figure 3）．

在对商品价位高度寻常的房地产餐饮业，国债举措的特性在加息不久如此一来次就已显现出。在2022年期间，抵押商业银行贷款商品价位据统计，致使房屋开工叛将和销售量减小，房价增幅上涨。的产品房租的增高很快见葫芦，然后稳步减小（布3）。

Measured housing services inflation lagged these changes， as is typical， but has recently begun to fall． This inflation metric reflects rents paid by all tenants， as well as estimates of the equivalent rents that could be earned from homes that are owner occupied.4 Because leases turn over slowly， it takes time for a decline in market rent growth to work its way into the overall inflation measure． The market rent slowdown has only recently begun to show through to that measure． The slowing growth in rents for new leases over roughly the past year can be thought of as “in the pipeline” and will affect measured housing services inflation over the coming year． Going forward， if market rent growth settles near pre-pandemic levels， housing services inflation should decline toward its pre-pandemic level as well． We will continue to watch the market rent data closely for a signal of the upside and downside risks to housing services inflation．

PCE指数所指标的住宅客户服务财政赤字较快于这些的产品变化时，但最仅有也开始减小。这一财政赤字高效叛将体现了所有租户偿还的房租，以及对自住宅屋确实赚得的等效房租的估计。由于地契周转较快，的产品房租工业产值的减小不一定需要很久才能更为严重影响到既有财政赤字高效叛将。的产品房租短时间上升直到最仅有才开始体现在这一高效叛将上。从从前一年左右的新房租增高短时间上升可以被看成“自始在酝酿当中”，并将更为严重影响期望一年的住宅客户服务财政赤字。展望期望，如果的产品房租增高牢固在登革热从前的水准附仅有，住宅客户服务财政赤字也不应减小到登革热从前的水准。我们将之从前的关系关切的产品房租原始数据，以寻找住宅客户服务财政赤字上行和折返高风险的讯号。

The final category， nonhousing services， accounts for over half of the core PCE index and includes a broad range of services， such as health care， food services， transportation， and accommodations． Twelve-month inflation in this sector has moved sideways since liftoff． Inflation measured over the past three and six months has declined， however， which is encouraging． Part of the reason for the modest decline of nonhousing services inflation so far is that many of these services were less affected by global supply chain bottlenecks and are generally thought to be less interest sensitive than other sectors such as housing or durable goods． Production of these services is also relatively labor intensive， and the labor market remains tight． Given the size of this sector， some further progress here will be essential to restoring price stability． Over time， restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and demand back into better balance， reducing inflationary pressures in this key sector．

最后更加有类，即非住宅客户服务，占一个当中心PCE的一半以上，都有各类广泛的客户餐饮业，如医疗保健，制品客户服务，交通设施和住宿。自加息以来，该分项的12个月初（上半年）本土装配总值一直在横盘。不过，从从前3个月初和6个月初的本土装配总值不大减小，这令人鼓舞。此从前，非住宅客户服务财政赤字均温和减小的部份主因是，其当中许多客户餐饮业所致在世界上产品设计困难的更为严重影响较小，且通时常被认为其对商品价位的寻常度不一定像住宅或耐用品一样大。这些客户服务的装配也是相对经济型的，农民的产品现今均均紧俏。鉴于这更加有项的体量，在这层面拿到确实性十分困难对于趋于稳定价位牢固至关重要。随着时间的不长，举例来说国债举措将有助于使总储备和总供给趋于稳定到更加好的有利于状态，减小这一关键性分项的财政赤字冲击。

脆弱性

Turning to the outlook， although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation， restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role． Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions．

关于脆弱性，虽然登革热无关的空洞效应在日益消除的反复当中将之从前对财政赤字施加折返冲击，但举例来说的国债举措才亦会起着更加重要的依赖性。预计不一定需要漫长一段宏观经济增高大于急遽增高的时期，而且不一定需要农民的产品才会不大缓和，财政赤字才能短时间地上升至2%。

宏观经济增高

Restrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions， supporting the expectation of below-trend growth． Since last year‘s symposium， the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points， and longer-term real yields are higher as well—by nearly 150 basis points． Beyond changes in interest rates， bank lending standards he tightened， and loan growth has slowed sharply． Such a tightening of broad financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity， and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well． For example， growth in industrial production has slowed， and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters （figure 4）．

举例来说的国债举措挂钩了证券的产品才会，以赞成对大于急遽增高的预计。自月份的霍利赖特开亦会以来，两年期基本上收益叛将上涨了约250个面上，而较长期的基本上收益叛将也增高了仅有150个面上。除了商品价位变化时部份，商业银行的商业银行贷款国际标准不大挂钩，商业银行贷款增高急速短时间上升。这种广泛的证券的产品才会挂钩通时常亦会致使宏观经济社交活动的增高短时间上升，在本轮天数也有这类证词。例如，在从从前的五个3集当中，的工业增量的增高业已短时间上升，住宅投资开支也在减小（布4）。

But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected． So far this year， GDP （gross domestic product） growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend， and recent readings on consumer spending he been especially robust． In addition， after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months， the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up． Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy．

但我们自始的关系关切那些未体现宏观经济按计划降温的讯号。月初内此从前，GDP（本土装配总值）增高超出预计，也高于其长期急遽，而且最仅有的商品开支原始数据尤为强大。此部份，地产餐饮业在从从前18个月初内都急速短时间上升如此一来次自始揭示出复苏的先兆。短时间高于急遽增高的确实性证词才亦会使财政赤字脆弱性陷于高风险，确实不一定需要确实性挂钩国债举措。

农民的产品

The rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year but remains incomplete． Labor supply has improved， driven by stronger participation among workers aged 25 to 54 and by an increase in immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels． Indeed， the labor force participation rate of women in their prime working years reached an all-time high in June． Demand for labor has moderated as well． Job openings remain high but are trending lower． Payroll job growth has slowed significantly． Total hours worked has been flat over the past six months， and the erage workweek has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range， reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions （figure 5）．

农民的产品的如此一来有利于在从从前一年当中短时间进行时，但仍未完。农民储备不大优化，25-54岁的农民参与叛将不大减小，美国移民工业产值攀升至登革热从前水准。实质上，女性的壮龄农民参与叛将在6月初达致了历史文化最高水准。对农民的供给也不大减缓。虽然职位填补空缺水准均均很高，但其急遽在日益减小。就业岗位的增高早就很大短时间上升。从从前六个月初总工时保持牢固，平皆周工作延时已下调低登革热从前的列车运行下沿，体现出农民的产品才会的日益自始时常化时（布5）。

This rebalancing has eased wage pressures． Wage growth across a range of measures continues to slow， albeit gradually （figure 6）． While nominal wage growth must ultimately slow to a rate that is consistent with 2 percent inflation， what matters for households is real wage growth． Even as nominal wage growth has slowed， real wage growth has been increasing as inflation has fallen．

这种如此一来有利于减轻了薪酬冲击。从多个高效叛将来看，薪酬增高仍在日益短时间上升（布6）。虽然名义薪酬增高如此一来度必需短时间上升到与2%的财政赤字明确的水准，但对于家庭来说想像的薪酬增高才更加重要。尽管名义薪酬增高短时间上升，但随着财政赤字减小，基本上薪酬增高急剧增高。

We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue． Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response．

我们预计这种农民的产品的如此一来有利于将不管怎样。如果证词表明农民的产品的缓和才会不必短时间缓解，仍确实不一定需要国债举措作出催化。

从前二路漫漫：连续性与审计

Uncertainty and Risk Management along the Path Forward

2%过去是也仍将是我们的财政赤字目的。我们致力于发挥依赖性与依靠所需举例来说的国债举措观点，以让财政赤字随着时间不长回到2%的水准。要可发挥依赖性辨别这样的观点何时得以发挥依赖性，当然富于启发性。这当当中的一些挑战，与历史文化上的所有削减天数具有共同点。例如，基本上商品价位现今早就转自始，且远高于惰性举措商品价位（r*）的主流结果显示。我们认为当从前的举措观点是举例来说的，对宏观经济社交活动、劳工雇佣和通货膨滴叛将皆施加了折返冲击。但我们并未能力写明惰性商品价位的水准，也因此国债举措强制执行的精确水准总是共存连续性。

Two percent is and will remain our inflation target． We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time． It is challenging， of course， to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved． There are some challenges that are common to all tightening cycles． For example， real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate． We see the current stance of policy as restrictive， putting downward pressure on economic activity， hiring， and inflation． But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest， and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint．

由于国债削减更为严重影响宏观经济社交活动、特别是通货膨滴叛将的时滞长度的连续性，对举措观点举例来说的检验被确实性无可避免。自一年从前的霍利赖特开亦会以来，FOMC提高举措商品价位已达300bps，从从前七个月初当当中加息100bps。我们还大幅度减半了货币举措的证券持仓体量。对这些时滞效应的结果显示列车运行皆有，也也就是说确实性的很大受挫确实仍在传导当当中。

That assessment is further complicated by uncertainty about the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation． Since the symposium a year ago， the Committee has raised the policy rate by 300 basis points， including 100 basis points over the past seven months． And we he substantially reduced the size of our securities holdings． The wide range of estimates of these lags suggests that there may be significant further drag in the pipeline．

在这些举措连续性的传统；也之部份，本轮天数当当中独特的供需错配通过其对通货膨滴叛将和农民的产品快照的更为严重影响，为我们明确提出了更加多难题。例如，截至现今，职位填补空缺已很大回升，却并未造成失业减小——这一结果当然广广为人知，但长久以来即使如此不寻时常的，体现了对农民的更为严重过剩供给。此部份，与从从前数十年的知识相比，有证词表明通货膨滴叛将对农民的产品缓和的催化越发更加灵敏[8]。这些亦然在变化时当中的快照也许亦会遗留下来下来，也许不亦会，但连续性本身忽视了灵活举措制定的全面性。

[8] 农民的产品松弛与通货膨滴叛将两者之间的关联——时常被称之为布朗切线关联——确实是非线性的，在缓和的农民的产品当当中呈现陡化时。如果布朗切线呈现这样的陡化时，农民的产品缓和往往的一点微妙变化时，就确实引致通货膨滴叛将更加为很大的变化时。要可发挥依赖性精确地辨别这种陡化时的往往，或者无关联农民的产品缓和往往的变化时它亦会如何演进，是非时常困难的。

Beyond these traditional sources of policy uncertainty， the supply and demand dislocations unique to this cycle raise further complications through their effects on inflation and labor market dynamics． For example， so far， job openings he declined substantially without increasing unemployment—a highly welcome but historically unusual result that appears to reflect large excess demand for labor． In addition， there is evidence that inflation has become more responsive to labor market tightness than was the case in recent decades.8 These changing dynamics may or may not persist， and this uncertainty underscores the need for agile policymaking．

8． The relationship between labor market slack and inflation， often called the Phillips curve relationship， is likely nonlinear， steepening in a tight labor market． If the Phillips curve has steepened in this way， a small change in labor market tightness could result in a more substantial change in inflation． It is difficult to know with precision how steep that relationship is in real time or how it might evolve as labor market tightness changes．

这些或熟悉或陌生的连续性，给我们在国债举措过度削减的高风险与削减着力极低的高风险两者之间找到有利于的工作明确提出了难题。削减着力极低亦会让高于目的水准的财政赤字积重难返，如此一来度国债举措为从宏观经济当当中卜卦除更加为顽固的财政赤字，要在就业层面付出代价更加较贵的代价。过度削减亦会对宏观经济造成不确实的毒害。

These uncertainties， both old and new， complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little． Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment． Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy．

论述

就像大多数时候那样，我们在乌云密布的星星下寻星导航。在这样的才会，审计层面的顾虑到极为关键性。在接下来的FOMC开亦会上，我们亦会基于所有原始数据和不断演进的脆弱性与高风险，对我们的十分困难做出检验。基于这一检验，我们亦会在暂时是确实性削减还是依靠举措商品价位不变准备好更加多原始数据出炉上审慎行事。趋于稳定价位牢固对于名副其实地发挥依赖性我们的双重己任而言至关重要。我们不一定需要价位牢固，以发挥依赖性短时间很久的强大农民的产品才会，从而扶助自已。

As is often the case， we are nigating by the stars under cloudy skies． In such circumstances， risk-management considerations are critical． At upcoming meetings， we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks． Based on this assessment， we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or， instead， to hold the policy rate constant and await further data． Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate． We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all．

将近大功告成之时，我们不亦会罢休。

We will keep at it until the job is done．

。

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